Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has signaled that the CLARITY Act could pass soon, framing the bill as a near-term milestone for U.S. crypto regulation. His public estimates of an 80% to 90% chance of passage by April 2026 have drawn attention across the digital asset sector, though the bill’s Senate timeline remains unofficial.
Garlinghouse Puts a Number on CLARITY Act Odds
Garlinghouse laid out his forecast during a February 19, 2026 appearance on Fox Business’s Mornings With Maria, where the segment was titled “Ripple CEO bets CLARITY Act clears Congress by April: 80% chance.”
A day later, PYMNTS reported that Garlinghouse raised his estimate to a 90% chance of the bill being signed into law by late April. He attributed the momentum to executive branch engagement.
“The White House is pushing hard on this, and I think that is a big reason why it will get done.”
Brad Garlinghouse, via PYMNTS
It is worth noting that these probability estimates are Garlinghouse’s personal forecasts, not commitments from Senate leadership or an official congressional calendar. No Senate Banking Committee notice has confirmed an end-of-April vote as of April 14, 2026.
Where the CLARITY Act Stands in Congress
H.R. 3633, formally known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, passed the House on July 17, 2025 with a bipartisan 294-134 vote.
The bill was received in the Senate on September 18, 2025 and referred to the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee. That referral remains the latest official action recorded on Congress.gov.
The legislation would create a federal market-structure framework splitting oversight between the CFTC and SEC for different digital asset activities. For the broader crypto industry, this kind of regulatory clarity has been a central demand for years, as firms have operated under overlapping and sometimes contradictory guidance from federal agencies.
Crypto advocacy group Coin Center has publicly backed the bill, highlighting Section 109 as a key provision. The organization wrote that “this provision offers long-overdue clarity to developers and infrastructure providers who build non-custodial blockchain technologies.” That framing matters because the treatment of non-custodial protocols, similar to issues raised in the SEC’s recent DeFi interface policy guidance, has been one of the most contested areas in U.S. digital asset regulation.
What Passage Could Mean for Ripple and Market Sentiment
Garlinghouse’s visibility on this issue is inseparable from Ripple’s own regulatory history. The company spent years in litigation with the SEC, making its CEO a natural voice on the question of legislative clarity. If the CLARITY Act advances, Ripple and similar crypto firms would operate under a more predictable federal framework.
The broader market context adds weight to the discussion. The Fear & Greed Index sat at 21 on April 14, 2026, signaling extreme fear. XRP traded at $1.37 with a market cap near $84 billion. A concrete step toward regulatory clarity could shift sentiment, though recent March and April negotiations over stablecoin rewards and conflict-of-interest language suggest the bill still faces unresolved political friction before a Senate committee vote.
For crypto firms watching regulatory developments alongside market volatility, including swings driven by factors like shifting mining economics and ongoing security threats, the CLARITY Act represents one of the few catalysts that could reshape the operating environment at a structural level.
Senator Bill Hagerty has reportedly expressed expectations that the bill could reach the full Senate this month, according to PYMNTS reporting, though no published Senate calendar confirms that timeline. Until the Senate Banking Committee schedules a markup or vote, Garlinghouse’s optimism remains a forecast rather than a legislative certainty.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.