Economists Predict Fed’s 25bp Rate Cut This Month

Economists anticipate a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut this month in the U.S., with expectations for a further reduction before the end of the year.

A rate cut could bolster liquidity and trigger risk asset inflows, potentially benefiting cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH through increased volatility and upward price movements.

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Economists and analysts overwhelmingly predict a 25 basis point (bp) Federal Reserve rate cut this month. Nearly all expect another cut before year-end. A mere fraction considers a 50bp move possible. Market sentiment is steered by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, is pivotal in this decision, though no recent statements have surfaced. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid suggests that recent data provides the Fed room for rate cuts. Jim Reid, Head of Global Fundamental Credit Strategy, Deutsche Bank, offered recent analysis:

“Taking the PPI categories that feed into core PCE…our U.S. economists see August core PCE inflation tracking at +0.32%, in line with their pre-PPI expectations. But the market focus was very much on the downside surprise in the headline number, as that was seen as giving the Fed more space to cut rates in the months ahead.” [Source]

Paul Donovan from UBS underscores market views on the base rate’s restrictiveness. The October 2023 Producer Price Index report released by BLS could provide further insights into the economic climate influencing the Fed’s decisions.

A rate cut often encourages greater liquidity and can affect risk assets significantly. While no direct allocation figures have surfaced, S&P 500 activity has increased. Crypto markets may experience higher volatility and potential uplifts if dovish signals are confirmed.

The financial implications of a rate cut include a boost in liquidity. This could favor assets like BTC, ETH, and DeFi tokens historically benefiting from rate-easing cycles. Staking flows into ETH remain strong as lower dollar yields push investors towards yield-generating options.

Previous rate cuts, like those in March 2023 and June 2024, resulted in short-term rallies in BTC/ETH. Such cycles have typically boosted cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and SOL. DeFi governance tokens have also benefited from anticipated rather than unexpected cuts.

Experts like Arthur Hayes believe Fed easing favors crypto markets. He previously argued:

“Fed easing always brings the animals back to the crypto yard.” [Source]

Raoul Pal consistently tweets on macro liquidity’s role.

Crypto communities are active, anticipating increased protocol usage if liquidity spikes post-rate cut.