Bitcoin eyes CLARITY Act amid SEC–CFTC split, April 2026

Crypto market structure bill by April: optimism high, forecasts divided

Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, has said there is about a 90% chance that U.S. crypto market-structure legislation will pass by April 2026, a timeline that has lifted sentiment around regulatory clarity. His confidence follows months of stalled negotiations and growing pressure from industry and policymakers to codify how digital assets are treated in the United States.

TD Cowen Washington Research Group, by contrast, projects that passage could slip to 2027, with implementation potentially extending toward 2029, underscoring the gap between executive optimism and Washington process risks. That divergence highlights how the calendar, committee dynamics, and unresolved policy disputes could shape outcomes as much as headline momentum.

Debate over the measure continues to hinge on jurisdictional boundaries and consumer protections, with House and Senate paths diverging and negotiations involving multiple committees. As reported by CryptoNews.com, the House cleared its version (H.R. 3633) with limited cross-aisle support, while the Senate Banking Committee has postponed markups amid disputes over stablecoin yield, DeFi oversight, and ethics provisions.

Benchmark’s research has warned that the ongoing delay is already weighing on U.S. crypto valuations and that a compromise outcome is the base case. After noting elevated regulatory risk for DeFi, exchanges, and altcoins, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer said the more realistic endgame is likely to feature “diluted provisions.”

What the CLARITY Act changes: SEC vs CFTC jurisdiction, DeFi, stablecoins

The CLARITY Act, as described by policymakers and analysts, aims to define when digital assets fall under securities law versus commodities regulation, allocate day-to-day oversight across the SEC and CFTC, and set expectations for exchange registration, token listings, and disclosures. It also spotlights how decentralized finance is supervised and whether stablecoin rewards offered by platforms should be restricted.

Public Citizen has cautioned that shifting large parts of retail-facing crypto activity to the CFTC, or curbing the SEC’s investor-protection remit, could leave consumers with weaker safeguards and strain an agency with fewer resources for policing fraud. Those capacity and mandate concerns frame a central fault line in negotiations about market integrity and retail risk.

The Blockchain Association has pushed back against proposals to prohibit stablecoin yields or rewards that originate from third-party service providers, arguing such bans would chill innovation and entrench incumbents at the expense of competition. That dispute sits alongside DeFi oversight questions, where compliance expectations and liability contours remain unsettled.

Stakeholder positions and market impact: Ripple, SEC, CFTC, advocates

Stakeholders are split between speed and scope: industry leaders welcome rapid codification to reduce litigation risk, while investor advocates prioritize enforcement strength and resourcing. The SEC and CFTC implications are pivotal for exchanges, token issuers, and protocols, since jurisdiction will determine registration paths, disclosure obligations, and permissible product design.

Critics in the House have warned that an overly permissive framework could undermine safeguards. In prepared remarks, Rep. Ayanna Pressley said the CLARITY Act, as proposed, gives “a green light to self-enriching crypto schemes,” asserting that stronger transparency and accountability standards are needed.

Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, has criticized efforts to advance a heavily compromised bill, warning that vague compliance duties, expansive enforcement discretion, and constraints on DeFi could undercut decentralization. Those concerns mirror broader debates about whether short-term certainty is worth potential long-term design trade-offs for open protocols.

At the time of this writing, XRP is around $1.40 with a bearish near-term sentiment and very high implied volatility of about 13.20%, based on provided market metrics. Coinbase Global, Inc. shares were recently quoted near $163.24 in delayed trading, offering additional context for how public crypto-exposed equities trade alongside shifting expectations for U.S. rulemaking.