Why Bitcoin is falling now: Glassnode and 10x Research signals
Bitcoin’s latest downdraft has accelerated, with the top crypto sliding more than 5% and breaking below the $63,000 mark, according to Blockmanity. The move has reinforced a broader risk-off tone across digital assets and pushed attention back to structural supports and liquidity conditions.
Research house 10x Research has highlighted a pickup in sell-side pressure alongside thinning buy-side depth, pointing to a loss of key technical supports and increasingly negative derivatives sentiment. The firm’s framework suggests that, absent a swift improvement in liquidity and market microstructure, downside volatility can persist.
On-chain triggers are also in focus. Several widely watched thresholds tied to holder cost bases and profit bands have been challenged this cycle, and losing them tends to worsen reflexivity: realized losses grow, forced sellers emerge, and bids retreat until stronger cost-basis cohorts or fresh capital step in.
On-chain thresholds, ETF flows, and derivatives that matter now
Based on data from Glassnode, the market’s posture around three gauges is pivotal: the short-term holder cost basis, the 95% cost-basis quantile that signals how broad unrealized profits are across the network, and the “true market mean,” a cycle reference that recently sat near $79,000. Slipping below these benchmarks historically coincides with drawdown phases unless they are swiftly reclaimed, because marginal sellers tend to dominate while profitable supply thins.
As reported by Finance Magnates, recent institutional flow dynamics have at times flipped from net inflows to net outflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs, removing a buffer that previously absorbed sell pressure. In parallel, the same note flagged weakening technical structures and softening derivatives positioning, a mix that can amplify intraday moves when liquidity is patchy.
A clear way to understand today’s tape is that these flow and positioning levers interact with on-chain profit/loss distribution, shaping whether pullbacks find responsive bids or cascade. “Crypto market crash deepens as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, BNB, Solana, Cardano and other altcoins extend losses,” as reported by CoinGape. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is around $63,366 with very high estimated daily volatility near 10.68%, a 14‑day RSI close to 32.6, and sentiment skewed bearish; trend gauges show a 50‑day SMA near 81,057 and a 200‑day near 98,983, with 12 green days in the past 30 (40%).
Downside scenarios, key supports, and risk-management checklist
If price remains below cycle reference levels like the short‑term holder cost basis and the broad profit-band threshold, the path of least resistance can tilt lower as realized losses climb and liquidity providers widen spreads. Conversely, decisive reclaim of these on-chain thresholds often marks the transition from liquidation-led selling to stabilization, reducing the probability of further cascade.
From a market-structure standpoint, sustained ETF net outflows, worsening funding and rising leverage in a falling market, or a failure to stabilize realized/unrealized PnL would keep downside risks elevated. By contrast, moderation of outflows, healthier term structure in derivatives, and evidence of dip absorption by stronger cost-basis cohorts would argue for a more balanced regime.
A practical checklist during heightened volatility includes monitoring: net ETF creations/redemptions for signs of institutional demand returning or retreating; shifts in perpetual funding and open interest that signal whether leverage is building pro‑cyclically; realized versus unrealized PnL to gauge reflexivity risk; and whether spot can meaningfully reclaim lost on‑chain reference levels and recent horizontal supports near the low‑$60,000s.
This article synthesizes published data and reporting for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Market conditions can change rapidly, and any forward-looking statements are conditional and subject to uncertainty.
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