The disclosure comes from WIRED, which reported on September 11, 2026 that CFTC voting records obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request revealed the investigations, according to reporting by Kate Knibbs. For related coverage, see SEC Delays Teucrium 2x Short XRP ETF to October 11.
Previously unreported CFTC investigations, according to WIRED
At least 3
To be clear, the reporting concerns trades placed on Polymarket. It does not mean the platform itself has been charged. Polymarket is the venue where the trades in question reportedly occurred. For related coverage, see US Senators Seek SEC Investigation Into Trump's Memecoin.
Trades tied to Biden pardons, Iran and Google
The three inquiries each target a different corner of Polymarket’s event contracts, per WIRED. The first, approved by CFTC chairman Michael Selig in early May, concerned potential insider trading in Biden-pardon event contracts.
That order authorized testimony, subpoenas, oaths and document production, WIRED reported. A second investigation, greenlit at the end of May, concerned Iran event contracts.
Neither the Biden nor the Iran order identified the specific trades under suspicion, according to the report. That detail matters. The scope of what regulators are actually looking at, in those two cases, stays unspecified.
The third came in July. It concerned additional individuals potentially involved in trading on Google’s 2025 Year in Search ranking, WIRED reported.
An email from acting enforcement director Paul Hayeck described a parallel Southern District of New York investigation, and distinguished the Google inquiry from the Michele Spagnuolo case. None of this suggests Biden, Iran or Google is itself a target. They are the subjects of the prediction markets, not the accused.
What remains unclear about the reported probe
Start with the obvious: an investigation is not a verdict. The May and July authorizations described by WIRED permit investigative steps. They are not findings that any trader broke the law.
The report leans on some eye-catching earlier figures that are explicitly not confirmed targets. WIRED cited an NPR-profiled trader who made over $300,000, and 60 Minutes-profiled Iran accounts that booked $2.4 million on a 98 percent win rate. According to WIRED, whether those traders are the actual targets is not established.
Whether the DOJ is running parallel criminal probes into the Biden and Iran contracts is also unclear, WIRED reported. Do not read a criminal case into the separately reported SDNY inquiry on Google.
The CFTC did not respond to WIRED’s questions about the investigations or their status. SDNY and Google declined to comment.
Polymarket offered a general statement. “While we do not comment on specific investigations, we regularly refer matters to law enforcement and support ongoing investigations as part of our commitment to protecting the integrity of our markets,” said Olivia Chalos, deputy chief legal officer at Polymarket, in an email to WIRED.
One former regulator was blunt about what the reporting could imply. “If these investigations are being prompted solely by press reports of potential violations of the Commodities Exchange Act, that’s a significant sign of weakness in this regulatory scheme,” Joseph Konizeski, a former chief trial attorney in the CFTC division of enforcement, told WIRED. Note the conditional wording; it is an if, not an accusation.
How this differs from the 2022 settlement
This is not the CFTC’s first run-in with Polymarket, but the new probes are a different animal. On January 3, 2022, the CFTC announced settled charges against Blockratize, Inc., doing business as Polymarket, for offering off-exchange event-based binary options without obtaining DCM designation or SEF registration, the agency said in its enforcement notice.
That order required a $1.4 million civil monetary penalty, the wind-down of noncompliant markets, and a halt to the charged violations. The notice said the event contracts constituted swaps under CFTC jurisdiction, and that Polymarket’s substantial cooperation earned a reduced penalty.
Here is the key distinction. The 2022 case was about the platform’s registration. The newly reported investigations are about suspected trader conduct, a separate question entirely, and one that scrutiny of prediction markets keeps returning to.
Lawmakers have been circling the same territory. A House Oversight chair has pressed both Kalshi and Polymarket over insider trading claims, and the CFTC has been sharpening its enforcement tools, including a move to automatically grant 30% whistleblower awards on smaller cases. The agency has also stayed active on the fraud beat, recently accusing a fund manager of hiding crypto and futures losses behind fake investor returns.
So where does that leave the prediction-market boom? Three quiet orders, no named targets, and a regulator that isn’t talking. The next move belongs to the CFTC, and for now, it’s keeping its cards face down.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
