Deutsche Bank sees a “capital war” risk from tax changes.
Section 899 targets foreign income with higher taxes.
Potential capital outflow could affect US and crypto markets.
Deutsche Bank Raises Concerns Over Trump’s Section 899 Proposal
Deutsche Bank’s warning highlights potential for major shifts in international capital flows, emphasizing significant market and economic vulnerabilities.
George Saravelos, a prominent Deutsche Bank researcher, has raised concerns over President Trump’sSection 899 proposal. The new tax targets foreign investors with higher fees, possibly transforming trade tensions into a capital conflict.
“We see this legislation as creating the scope for the US administration to transform a trade war into a capital war if it so wishes, a development that is highly relevant in the context of today’s court decision constraining President Trump on trade policy.” — George Saravelos, Head of FX Research, Deutsche Bank
Involved parties include Deutsche Bank and the Trump administration. Actions focus on elevated taxes on foreign income, increasing financial obligations for investors. This policy shift could reshape global capital accessibility.
The immediate effects could disrupt foreign investments in US securities, notably Treasuries. This change threatens liquidity and market stability, impacting both traditional and digital finance sectors.
Financial implications are extensive, with projections indicating a potential 100 basis point yield drop for US bonds. Market strategies may shift substantially, affecting cross-border capital flows and market dynamics.
Historical references include heightened market volatility during Trump’s tariff imposition period, suggesting potential risk-off sentiment. Previous policies like FATCA also saw reduced foreign engagement, contrasting with new yield-targeted tax strategies.
Possible outcomes include regulatory adaptations, shifts in technological engagement, and market repositioning by investors to mitigate impacts. Historical data and trends suggest strategic changes in asset allocation are likely as markets react.
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