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Homepage/News/Federal Reserve 50% Likelihood of December R...
NEWS

Federal Reserve 50% Likelihood of December Rate Cut

BY Solomon M.·1 MIN READ·NOVEMBER 18, 2025

Federal Reserve 50% Likelihood of December Rate Cut

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the December meeting has surged beyond 50% following recent weak jobs reports in the United States, according to CME Group data.

KEY FINDINGS - EVIDENCE LEVEL: MULTI-SOURCE
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Key Points:
  • Fed rate cut potentially set for December affects market dynamics.
  • Implications for BTC, ETH, and stablecoin fluctuations.
  • Crypto market reacts to U.S. monetary policy updates.

This shift could impact cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum historically reacting to such monetary policy changes by displaying heightened volatility and trading volume.

As of November 18, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s probability of a 25 bps rate cut for December stands at 50% due to weak jobs reports, impacting financial strategies.

The decision-making body for this anticipated cut includes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), chaired by Jerome Powell, with potential policy shifts affecting various economic sectors.

Immediate effects include shifts in global liquidity and funding costs, influencing both traditional and crypto markets. BTC and ETH values may fluctuate based on impending interest rate changes.

These financial maneuvers may provoke adjustments in risk appetite, affecting the dollar index and on‐chain activity within the cryptosphere.

Major digital assets exhibit sensitivity to Fed policy adjustments, with potential market volatility. Investors should monitor developments closely.

Analysts predict that historical market patterns suggest possible short‐term benefits for risk assets during such policy shifts. Crypto traders may seek buffer zones in stable assets or defensive positions.

Jerome Powell, Chair, Federal Reserve Board, – “The probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the December FOMC meeting is approximately 50%.” CME FedWatch Tool
Disclaimer:

The content on The CCPress is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry inherent risks. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

SOURCE TRANSPARENCY
  • External Source - Referenced domain: cmegroup.com
  • External Source - Referenced domain: polymarket.com
  • Byline - Reported by Solomon M.
  • Coverage Desk - Primary editorial category: News
  • Media Asset - Featured image served from the WordPress media library
Federal Reserve 50% Likelihood of December Rate Cut | TheCCPress