Morgan Stanley Foresees No Fed Rate Cuts Until 2026

Morgan Stanley’s recent projection indicates that the Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates until 2026. Persistent inflation and sluggish job growth have shifted expectations, delaying potential cuts previously anticipated.

Expert Insights

Key figures from Morgan Stanley, including Michael Gapen and Andrew Sheets, have voiced these insights. Michael Gapen noted, “We think the Fed will stay on hold for the rest of this year, with a lot of cuts to follow in 2026. … We think the Fed will be seeing more inflation first before it sees the weaker labor market later.” The decision diverges from market expectations of earlier rate adjustments, pointing to rising core inflation concerns.

Market Impact

Higher interest rates could maintain conservative institutional allocations in fixed income and cryptocurrencies. Historical cycles show the potential for reduced liquidity and speculative interest in risk assets like BTC and ETH.

Without significant labor market changes, the delay in rate cuts may continue affecting financial markets. Analysts forecast reduced DeFi liquidity and weakened token prices under such a regime, barring a major shift in Federal Reserve policies.

Future Outlook

Insiders predict no significant regulatory responses or public statements from crypto leaders regarding the updated outlook. As interest rates remain elevated, financial and technological impacts are expected to ripple across different sectors.