Fed Signals High Probability of October Rate Cut

The Federal Reserve sees a market-implied probability exceeding 91.9% for a rate cut in October 2025. This follows the quarter-point reduction made in September. This anticipated move stems from the Fed’s ongoing attempts to address economic shifts. For real-time tracking and expectations of the Fed’s decisions, utilize the CME FedWatch Tool.

Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, continues to steer the Committee amidst economic challenges. Powell emphasized during a press conference, “The committee tries to get a complete picture of the biggest downside risks for the economy, and then at the end of the meeting, there needs to be some sort of weighting — it’s an art as much as science.” Supported by newly confirmed Stephen Miran, decisions are increasingly influenced by data rather than political pressure from figures like President Donald Trump.

Impact on Crypto Markets

Crypto markets such as BTC and ETH may react positively, driven by lower borrowing costs. Historical data supports this trend, as seen from previous rate cuts, which can be explored through U.S. Interest Rate Overview and Historical Data. This generally results in increased liquidity and risk appetite for these assets.

A potential rate cut could offer significant financial ramifications, reducing the cost of borrowing USD. It may thereby spur institutional flows into speculative markets, notably impacting DeFi projects and major cryptocurrencies.

Market Anticipations and Effects

Rates are expected to affect liquidity cycles, with possible positive outcomes for crypto financings. Discussions are heightened among crypto community leaders anticipating Fed decisions, which historically prompt market and protocol adjustments.

These adjustments align with historical trends, where cuts led to increased activity and growth in Total Value Locked (TVL) within the DeFi sector. For those keeping track of these trends and adjustments, see the Latest U.S. CPI Release.