SkyBridge Capital managing partner Anthony Scaramucci has reaffirmed his belief that Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle remains intact, forecasting choppy price action through most of 2026 before a rally begins in the fourth quarter.
Scaramucci made the comments in a recent interview reported by CoinTelegraph, calling the current correction “garden variety” and historically normal for Bitcoin’s cyclical pattern. BTC has fallen sharply from its all-time high near $126,000 to trade around $67,456, a drawdown that Scaramucci frames as entirely consistent with past cycles.
“We’re in a four-year cycle, and there were some traditional whales, some OG’s, that believe in the four-year cycle, and guess what happens in life when you believe in something? You create a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Scaramucci said.
He added that BTC will “see choppy price action for most of the year, until the fourth quarter of 2026, when prices will start to rise again.” Market participants had widely expected Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2025, a target that never materialized.
What the 4-Year Cycle Predicts
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is tied to its halving events, which cut the block reward issued to miners in half roughly every four years. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, reducing the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.
Historically, each halving has preceded a major bull run. The 2012 halving led to BTC’s surge past $1,000 in 2013. The 2016 halving preceded the late-2017 rally to nearly $20,000. And the May 2020 halving was followed by Bitcoin’s climb to $69,000 in November 2021.
The pattern suggests a peak roughly 12 to 18 months after each halving, followed by a prolonged decline in the fourth year. By that framework, the April 2024 halving should have produced a peak sometime in late 2025, which aligns with BTC’s run to $126,000 before the subsequent correction.
Scaramucci’s thesis places the current market squarely in the downward phase of that cycle, with the next upswing beginning around Q4 2026. That would track with the historical rhythm of three years of appreciation followed by one year of decline.
Why This View Still Has Skeptics
Not everyone agrees the old playbook still applies. The arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has fundamentally changed market structure, introducing consistent institutional capital flows that did not exist in prior cycles. Some analysts argue that ETF-driven demand could compress or even eliminate the traditional four-year pattern. Recent data showing that Bitcoin ETFs recorded their longest weekly inflow streak of 2026 underscores how different this cycle’s demand profile looks.
Scaramucci himself has acknowledged this shift, noting that ETF inflows and institutional adoption have “muted” the cycle’s amplitude. But he maintains that the underlying rhythm persists, driven in part by the self-fulfilling behavior of long-term holders who trade around the halving calendar.
Macro conditions add another layer of uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Iran conflict, have weighed on risk assets broadly. BTC is down 4.12% in the past 24 hours, and the Fear & Greed Index has collapsed to 10, reflecting extreme fear across the market.
That level of bearish sentiment is itself notable. In prior cycles, readings at or near extreme fear have coincided with accumulation phases by long-term holders, periods that preceded significant recoveries. Whether that pattern holds this time depends heavily on whether the macro backdrop stabilizes.
BTC’s current price of $67,456 sits well above the cycle low of roughly $60,000 hit in October 2025, but remains 46% below the all-time high. For Scaramucci’s Q4 recovery thesis to play out, the market would need to absorb several more months of sideways or declining action before buyers step in.
The broader crypto market is reflecting similar stress. XRP dropped 3.52% ahead of the SEC’s March 27 spot ETF decision, illustrating how regulatory uncertainty continues to suppress altcoin momentum alongside Bitcoin’s correction.
Scaramucci’s view carries weight as one of the most visible institutional voices in crypto, but his track record is mixed. His previous $150,000 BTC target for 2025 missed the mark. Whether the four-year cycle delivers another Q4 rally or whether institutional adoption has permanently altered Bitcoin’s rhythm is the central question facing the market heading into the second half of 2026.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
